Date of publication: March 7, 1999

"I Have Seen the Future and It Is Old"

by Michael Finley
Copyright © 1998 by Michael Finley

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Winner, Financial Times/Booz Allen & Hamilton Global Business Book Award, Best Management Book - The Americas, 1995


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Why Change Doesn't Work:
Why Initiatives Go Wrong and How to Try Again and Succeed
Harvey Robbins, Michael Finley
Hardcover
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"This is the first treatise on change we've seen that is actually entertaining. The authors cover human and organizational barriers to change and change theories, and then take a tour of management theory that's guaranteed to upset every reader at one point or another." -- HR ONLINE

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Comments on this column:

I loved your column about the future being old. Why is it that agism is so alive and well in America? So many companies just don't get it. Thanks. -- Inez M. Johnson


Great article. The demographics devolve down to young, just-outta-college media buyers in Manhatten ad agencies who foist their preferences onto the account reps, who tell the international clients that the young demo is where it's at, and the old farts running the international companies think "they oughta know, that's why we pay 'em megabucks", so the old farts allow the account reps to tell the media buyers to plunk down their multi-billion-dollar budgets on "King of the Hill" and "Feral Dogs Eat Their Young" on Fox. And the people on Fox stand in line at the trough, telling their sitcom vendors "beats the hell outta me, but all the sponsors want is that 18-49 demo, so send me some more T&A for next season."

The way to nip it *all* in the bud is to bribe the just-outta-college media buyers with chocolate and perfumes, so they'll begin to steer all those ad dollars into older demographics.

Then, Mike, you and I can be assured of a steady income all the way to Methuselah! -- Carl Swann

[IMAGE]

A Master of the Wired World?

I just got my author's copies of a new book from Financial Times Management (London), MASTERS OF THE WIRED WORLD: Cyberspace Speaks Out.

What's remarkable is that this collection of manifestos about the new age a'dawning contains proclamations by Tony Blair, Al Gore, Charles Handy, Nicholas Negroponte, Arthur C. Clarke, Alvin Toffler ... and me.

Anne C. Leer, editor

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It's funny how our thoughts about the future tend to focus on gadgets. How fast and intelligent our computers will be. What conveniences we will surround ourselves with. How one person will be able to do the work of five hundred.

When what we should focus on is the people. Will the people of the future be like us, or will they be different?

Last week's US News & World Report cover story ("The World Turns Grey," March 1) suggested that the world twenty years from now will be different mostly because we'll be twenty years older.

It made me wonder what news hawk, ear pressed to the ground, first identified this trend. The census shows that over 50,000 people -- a city bigger than Green Bay, Wisconsin -- are 100 or over. Behind them, the average age of a Buick owner is 72. And in the foreground, the first of 46 million Baby Boomers are just hitting their stride at age 54.

You could sort of see this thing coming.

And what it means is that, just as Boomers dominated markets when they were young and in their prime, so will they continue to dominate in their dotage.

So the Boomer bubble, a demographic bulge of 46 million lithe-limbed, soon-to-be AARP members, with money in the bank, Deadhead stickers on their cars, echinacea in their bloodstream, and the clear intention to retire early, live forever, and force what few children we thought to have to pay for our Social Security continues to sweep through our times.

And that's just the U.S. The geezer boom will be global, where longer life expectancy and smaller families ensure that the world of the 2000s will be long in the tooth and slow on the hoof.

Businesses that are clever about the demographic opportunities will have a field day selling stuff to the new oldsters -- insurance, computers, vacations, medicines, and all manner of toys and devices for an older set that won't act old.

But you know what? Most businesses still don't get it.

Last week I submitted a story to one of the top national newspapers. It was a firsthand treatment of a medical problem that is a leading cause of death and disability, causing society many billions of dollars annually -- brain tumors, and how they are popping up in lots of heads these days.

The editors liked the story. But they balked when they learned I am a whopping 48 years old.

"We're focusing all our stories toward a readership between 24 and 45," the editor told me.

I thanked them for their time, and that was that.

Except ... don't you wonder about a nationwide publisher that turns its nose up at the biggest, richest, readingest market the world has ever known? Since when is a newspaper free to lop off giant hunks of the reading bandwidth anyway?

This is to set aside the obvious problem that not all news is about 24 to 45 years olds. Do you kill a story about a band of baboons from a zoo train crash overrunning a senior center -- and all that that implies -- in favor of a story about 401(k) contributions?

Is news still news if it is "targeted"? Or does the fact of targeting, of foretelling, of predetermination, prevent news from being genuinely new?

Ken Dychtwald, author of Age Wave, a book documenting the rise of the geriatric bubble, says that most businesses are adapting to the bubble by waiting till it passes, like an elephant lumbering through a village -- then shooting useless arrows after it.

Smart businesses, by contrast, wait ahead of the elephant, with a fresh-dug pit for it to fall into.

Are you shooting off arrows of futility, or do you have a nice pit in your front yard, with a bag of peanuts at the bottom?

Imagine 46 million men slapping on testosterone patches at the same moment. It's coming. They will do it. If you move quickly, you could sell them those patches. Or you could sell their wives and girlfriends dance lessons for couples. Then stand back, as everyone gets what they, deep down, want.

Q: what is the fastest growing group of computer buyers?

A: People over 70. And they're not just the fast-growing. They have the most discretionary income, and the most discretionary time. They are figuring out the Internet, wireless technology, and interactive multimedia.

Pile all that gear into an RV, and you have the meanest, hippest, most powerful, most mobile army in the world, rolling down the road.

Make payments with PayPal - it's fast, free and secure!
Get your signed copy of
The NEW Why Teams Don't Work
by Mike & Harvey Robbins
from Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Just click on the book cover!
A fully revised second edition of this award-winning classic
by Harvey Robbins and Michael Finley
Paperback

Winner, Financial Times/Booz Allen & Hamilton Global Business Book Award, Best Management Book - The Americas, 1995


Table of contents and sample chapters of this book...


Just click on the book cover to order your signed copy for only $12.95.
Make payments with PayPal - it's fast, free and secure!
Table of contents and sample chapters of this book...
Why Change Doesn't Work:
Why Initiatives Go Wrong and How to Try Again and Succeed
Harvey Robbins, Michael Finley
Hardcover
Just click on the book cover to order your signed copy for only $12.95.
Make payments with PayPal - it's fast, free and secure!
"This is the first treatise on change we've seen that is actually entertaining. The authors cover human and organizational barriers to change and change theories, and then take a tour of management theory that's guaranteed to upset every reader at one point or another." -- HR ONLINE

Table of contents and sample chapters of this book...

Why not bookmark Mike's columns for your weekly enjoyment?

Stimulate the economy, give a poet a dollar.

I enjoyed serving this essay up for you, and I did it for free. But this writer is currently out of work, and a bit of revenue would gladden his heart. If you'd like to contribute to this site, consider dropping a $1 tip in the "Honor Box" here. Just click the CLICK TO PAY image here. Thanks - Mike
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