Date of publication: May 28, 2000

"Beyond Plasma"

Have you noticed that certain fixed elements of the information age are starting to come unglued?

This past week, I got mailings from two formidable computer age magazine warhorses.

The first was from PC Week. I have been getting PC Week free for the past seven years, because I'm on a list of visionaries too cheap to subscribe to anything. I get two copies, actually -- one for the blue recycling tub and one for the yellow one.

I seldom read more than a few pages of it, because it is an industry insider publication. PC Week is mainly for IT professionals. Whereas, I'm unemployed -- I mean, a futurist. I read about legacy systems and connectivity forums, and my eyes glaze over, and I think about beets.

But my point here is that trade magazines like PC Week tend to be pretty conservative about change. Change too much, too fast, and they lose their readers and advertisers.

Well, this week PC Week changed its name to e-week, and that is no small change. It remains a staple for the desktop computer industry, but the focus changes radically, from machines to the virtual realm the machines escort us to.

But here's an even more radical change. Another Ziff-Davis magazine, PC Computing, is changing its name to Smart Business [for the New Economy]. It's a bigger shift than PC Week to e-week because this is a consumer magazine, and consumers are harder to herd from point to point than people who read trade magazines.

Either way, these changes are pretty brave. I'm guessing a lot of people are still interested in plain old computers, and will seek out magazines not too ashamed to write about them, and even mention them in their titles.

Will PC Magazine change its name any time soon? Nah -- they're making too much money.

But on to the significance of the name switches. What it means is something that certain visionary futurists who shall go unnamed, ahem, have been predicting for years -- that the better technology becomes, the more invisible it becomes, until no one who's cool wants to talk about the technology anymore. We want to talk about where it takes us, instead. And the answer to that is -- "beyond."

Years ago I wrote for an IBM magazine for IT professionals that was way ahead of the curve on this development. The magazine, circulated mainly to CIOs and senior MIS managers, was called Beyond Computing. We tried to convey that there was a larger, more strategic reality beyond the way people in IT silos were at that time willing to consider. In reality, we wound up talking about management, which was new to tech professionals, but not "beyond" much else.

The name is coming around again. PRI is airing a new segment called Beyond Computers. See the trend?

Let's talk about the word beyond. At first glance it's a racehorse, instantly galloping your mind to a place it has not previously gone. On second glance, however, it’s a Missouri mule. I once tried to title a book Beyond Competition, but when I checked Books In Print I was dismayed to see there hundreds and hundreds of titles beginning with the word beyond. Beyond Politics. Beyond Compliance. Beyond Virtuality (really!).

We so want to be "out there" -- but if we all crowd around the same preposition, we're pretty much in one place, aren't we?

I knew how unbeyond I really was this week when I got an e-mail from a high school sophomore in Toronto named Jerome. "Dear Mr. Finley," he wrote, "as a futurist you must have a better idea than anyone about what's going to happen next. I am doing a paper on Alvin Toffler's 'The Third Wave,' and I want to speculate on what happens after his third wave, which is the wave of information. So my question is, what’s the fourth wave?"

It's a fine and thoughtful question, but what do I tell the kid? That I merely have to look it up in the futurist's index -- here we are, agriculture, industry, information, and the fourth wave -- plasma. The fourth wave, the one beyond the one that's currently in its very infancy, will be The Age of Plasma. Whatever that means.

Or: I could tell you what the fourth wave will be, Jerome, but then I’d have to kill you. Futurist rules, ya know.

No, I prefer to stake out the more modest, nonbeyond terrain of being an authority on what happens in the next 45 minutes. It's just as mysterious as the next millennium, and actually far riskier, because you run the distinct chance of someone finding out how wrong you are. A risk you never run with plasma, but hey, that's me.

 

 

mfinley.com

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by MICHAEL FINLEY

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Comments on this column:

Dear Michael,

I read that you have mentioned the term 'The Age of Plasma' as the fourth wave. I want to know what it means and how it is different from the Third Wave as depicted by Mr. Alvin Toffler. I guess the age of plasma means that it's an age of sharing tangible and intangible things among people in the community. Am I right? Thank you!

Yours sincerely,
Thomas, Hong Kong


RESPONSE: You guessed right. It's an age in which borders dissolve, and energy flows freely. But it's just a guess, and I'm not sure what it means, or when it will happen! - Mike F.
dear mr. finley

I am a clinical psicologist graduated in Paris and I was very interested in the article that you have made about Mr. Toffler and I would be very interested in every information about him. Everyday I am getting a lot of articles that i dont think are witten by somebody as intelligent as you buut are signed with your name.

Those articles let me tell you dont have any sense,because are very poor thematically ,and are in any senseuniversal at all and for that reason is very pretentious to put them in the WEB. They seem to b reflexions of an american graduate that has never been out of the USA..The world is to big and too degmented to be so simple minded to send that sort of messages in the web- If a genious like Mr- Toffler gets an anthology of all what you try to vehiculate in the web he will be very ashamed of having accepted your invitation. Yours sincerely
Jorge Smith
Gabriel@mailtv.ole.com


Yep, and I'm letting my [paid, thank you very much] subscription lapse for two reasons. One, I subscribed for over 10 years because I'm the geek you wrote about who wants to cover new things in computing hardware & software in one magazine; without that focus, it's just another e-business magazine... which leads to Reason Two (Cat-in-the-hat-tip to Dr Seuss): I already subscribe to 3 e-business magazines (1 paid and 2 comp), all of which target me better than the new Smart Business (they are Fast Company [paid], Upside [comp] and Home Office Computing [comp]). Hey, I don't need another e-business magazine, especially one that's slouching its way to a new subscriber base and playing Johnny-Come-Lately.

I'm sure ZD says there is no more future in touting hardware (commodities) or packaged software (when it's all downloadable and purchasable from the Web)... but I don't think this new venture will fly.

Beyond Computing" is, I believe, the title of an NPR program on at 9 PM Sundays(KNOW, Twin Cities). It has been in existence for about a year or more.

Paul A.


Sic transit gloria mundi cyberia... C.S.
Funny, I've been getting PC Computing for eons, maybe since it first debuted. A few weeks ago, a magazine by the name of Smart Business arrived. I thought it was some kind of phone-book sized advertising supplement so I dumped it straight in the trash.

Probably just as well - I mean, how many issues do you really need that come with the 72 point headline, "100 Best Kept Win98 Secrets"?

Keep the baby, faith. D. M.



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I enjoyed serving this essay up for you, and I did it for free. But this writer is currently out of work, and a bit of revenue would gladden his heart. If you'd like to contribute to this site, consider dropping a $1 tip in the "Honor Box" here. Just click the CLICK TO PAY image here. Thanks - Mike
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