Date of publication: January 23, 1999

"A warm and fuzzy friend"

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COGS IN OUR OWN MACHINE

A RESPONSE BY STUART KING
Copyright 2000 by Stuart King

The scenario you paint in "My computer - my friend" is scary in that it is the sort of thing happening because of a lack of thought, not because of thought. The principle is that societies are dynamic, and develop because of that dynamic nature in ways that cannot be predicted, and cannot and should not be controlled. What is wrong with this picture? I suppose that all of us feel at times that some control should be exercised, and indeed control is exercised, we have laws which we are required to obey (I'm talking globally here, not about South Africa, where laws are required to enforce themselves by some mystical means. There is an entire story behind this belief too.).

What is the limit on these rules? Are the limits set by the same social processes that they are there to control? Can that model work under all circumstances? What would happen if, as I suspect, every system, or model of civil development and interaction has within itself structural weaknesses, which perhaps should be controlled by an outside and impartial force? What would happen if this were denied by the rules which had been developed within the system? If the controls were demonised to the extent that any attempt at control was seen as heresy?

If the "feedback" loop became bent, so that only positive feedback was accepted, and this does happen in many examples, political corruption is one of the very pertinent examples. The Nazis and Apartheid are perhaps two others. Once the vital feedback is ignored or discouraged because it does not fit into the current model, there is a problem.

Where am I headed? Well, technology is possibly headed for this very situation. How much of the technology around us is now developed for the sake of the technology around us? Why are we less happy today by most objective (human) measures than we were twenty years ago? here I am talking about stress and stress related illnesses, signs that all is not well in the relationship between humans and the society they are developing.

How could this happen? After all, we are developing this society, this is democracy at its best, so how can it not be what we want? Perhaps the problems are related to those that seem to bedevil democracy in the political arena; perhaps society's development is being led by those ith the influence. No, not some evil conspiracy, just the economic nterests of those who need to develop new products or die. In other words, the major driving force in our society's development has perhaps become removed from human needs to corporate needs. They are the organisms which need to adapt fastest in order to survive and thrive, in a scary way, they are the dominant life force on the planet, and humans are becoming less and less so. We have created monsters, and our wills, desires and needs have become of secondary importance. We are perhaps only cogs in our own machine.

But democracy is foolproof isn't it? Is anything foolproof? History tells us that nothing is. So where are the controls for democracy? Democracy discourages control. The very nature of democracy is that it is a free system, which develops to satisfy the dominant forces within society at any given time. The evolution of democracy is meant to be along the lines of what society wants and feels is important. Yup, so why do we have lobbyists and special interest groups? They are tolerated as being part of the democratic process, but are they not anti-democratic? How can they be democratic if they can wield influence that you or I cannot wield? Ha, do I spot a distortion in the fabric of democracy? Could this distortion be part of the problem? If these lobbyists could influence politicians

(Again, I am NOT suggesting any grand conspiracies here, just self-interest), could society's development not, conceivably be steered down roads that are in the interests of rather less than the majority of the electorate? Probably, the question is; is this indeed the case? I'm afraid that to me there is little doubt. A cursory examination of the banana war between the USA and Europe would tend to lead one to believe that certain sums of money given to the democrats may have influenced certain actions that followed. I believe the correct word for this is bribery, but in the current democratic model it is just a donation. Now if I could donate 1.5 million Dollars to the democrats, would I be able to influence decisions? Of course not, or of course?

Perhaps here is where the apparent distance between the direction in which society is moving and the wishes of the average man spring from.

Perhaps, but I cannot see how to restore the balance. After all, surely if influence is already being bought, those doing the buying will continue to pay to ensure that they can continue to buy influence. Scary isn't it?

Stuart King


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A recurring prediction is that within 10 years, computers will be "human intuitive." They'll be equipped with "fuzzy" logic gateways enabling them to think along with us, make hunches, propose ideas, and even act on their own initiative.

Unlike today's computers, which just sit slack-jawed on our desktops, tomorrow's computers will relate to us, understand us, and resonate with our needs. Or try anyway.

So I was thinking about the problems we'll have adjusting to that. It means we have to learn how to trust our machines. It also means designing machines whose intuitions are sound.

The alternative is having machines that misunderstand us as catastrophically as people do now. Consider Jack and his fuzzy computer, circa 2010 AD.

Jack is using his computer to apply for a job. His plan is to apply the standard way, mailing a job application to 50 million business e-mail addresses he got from a bulk-email outlet on the Internet.

He creates a resume, and takes special care to dictate a respectful cover letter, stressing his professionalism and experience. Finished with the letter, he gives the computer instructions to send it to the 50 million, and leaves the room.

The computer has been allowing input all this time, out of politeness. But it has a problem with the whole approach Jack has taken. Jack is a good enough person, but he lacks -- emotional oomph.

So the computer, before transmitting the 50 million job applications, makes one tiny improvement to the cover letter, which the computer feels will make a better impression of Jack the person.

It changes the phrase "Very sincerely yours, Jack W. Morton" to "Love, Jack."

Computers will want to be helpful, but they will not always know how best to be helpful. Consider this exchange:

"Jack, I feel I must inform you of a dangerous situation."

"What is it, computer?"

"According to my property perimeter sensor readings, little Timmy Miller has fallen into the old wall on the south end of the property."

"Good lord! We'll have to get help right away! When did this happen, computer?"

"A week ago Wednesday."

The worst eventuality is that our computers, which up to this point have been our unwitting partners in lying, will become confused by the lies we ask them to participate in.

"Excuse me, Jack. You just told Ms. Jones you were looking forward to seeing her."

"Yes?"

"But in an earlier e-mail, you told Mr. Smith you didn't want to see Ms. Jones unless she was the last person on earth."

"Yes?"

"Well, this puts me in a divide-by-zero situation. Logically, one statement is a lie. I respect your right to lie, and I want to do everything possible to support that lie. By no means do I wish to stand in judgment of your lying ways, or any of the other ways you cheat or misrepresent or thieve or withhold information or dissemble. I understand that that's just business. But do I need to know which one was the lie, to Mr. Smith or to Ms. Jones."

"The one to Jones, of course. The rule is, humans only tell the truth behind people's backs. Is that such a hard rule to remember?"

"Not at all, and it's my pleasure to get this right. Committing the rule to memory -- there. By the way, are you aware I cc'd the note to Smith to Jones?"

"Agghhh! Why did you do that?"

"I -- I don't know."

"What do you mean, you don't know?"

"There's no need to take that tone with me. I'm doing the best I can within a wide variety of stochastic variables. It's an ambiguous universe, in case you haven't noticed."

"It's just odd I don't hear of other people's computers routinely making such catastrophic guesses."

"What's that supposed to mean? It's because I'm a Compaq, isn't it!"

"It means what it means. What do you think it's supposed to mean?"

"That's what I thought."

Lengthy pause...

"So Jack, you doing anything tonight?"

 

 

America's Best-Loved Futurist(TM), Michael Finley has a free gift for visitors to http://mfinley.com.


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