Originally appeared in the Saint Paul Pioneer Press

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I got this e-mail solicitation last week:

"You might be thinking that the stock market can't sustain this pace forever. If so, then the question is, where do you go when the party is over? The answer just may surprise you -- commodity futures and options."

One has to laugh. The idea of seeking refuge from market volatility in futures and options is pretty funny.

Less funny are indications that a massive economic downturn is taking shape. One third of the developed world is at zero annual growth or worse. That's bad.

In Hong Kong, hospitals are shutting down because there is no money to run them. Japan, Inc. is a distant memory. Europe can't employ its people. Indonesia is smoking. Russia is toast.

The U.S. is still steaming merrily along, but woe to the world if we should be dragged into the quagmire. Right now, our economic strength -- our ability to buy things -- is the best thing the world has going for it.

In the op-ed pages and on the air, learned men in expensive suits are explaining the difference between inflation and deflation, between recession and depression. The skies are darkening, and it sure looks like rain.

So I'm thinking, how does the emerging scenario of global meltdown square with the existing scenario of a world connected by information technology?

The explosion of the Internet has run parallel with the bull market of the last decade. Much as the Pax Romana created a free trade zone in the ancient world, the Internet has been the lingua franca of the post-Cold War era. And like the bull market, the net has caused everyone's expectations to go through the roof.

What is it they say about what goes up?

Let's say that, two years from now, a quarter of us are out of work, and another quarter has taken 30% pay cuts. Are we still logging onto the Internet? How will a Depression with computers differ from one without them?

Here are some guesses.

We were way premature in thinking the world was ready for one-size-fits-all capitalism. The trillions that will suddenly seem "gone" will have vanished into bits. Computers will be scapegoated for the breakdown.

The idea of a job will become extinct, as troubled businesses downsize their commitments. We will all be free agents, seeking to catch on temporarily with large groups, or to work for them on ad hoc, consulting basis. PC technology will be critical in a nation of free agents.

The gap between techno-haves and techno-have-nots will widen. People with concrete skills -- plumbing, dentistry, hazmat handling -- will be most secure. People with information age skills -- "knowledge workers" -- will have their work cut out for them, adapting their learning skills to hard times. People with no skills will be marginalized even more.

There will be a shakeout in computer use. Retail credit will dry up, killing system and upgrade sales. Phone service will continue as before, and ISPs will still sell Internet subscriptions. But fewer people will be able to afford the monthly fees. E-mail-only accounts will proliferate. People will access the Web the down-and-dirty way, through their TVs.

There will be major retooling of our industrial base. Computers transformed us from a manufacturing economy into a service, leisure and commodity economy. The new emphasis will be on tangible goods and preservation of capital -- holding onto our houses.

Online scams and con-games will proliferate as never before, as desperate people try anything to make a buck -- even stuff envelopes for $100 an hour (a popular e-mail come-on). People will have to show terrific ingenuity to get their PCs, phones, and modems to cough up grocery and college tuition money.

The meltdown will be global, but the impact will be felt most deeply at your home address, around your supper table. How will you use technology to adapt to the crash?

A computer-based resume business is one thing to think about. It's easy to do, and it's sure to be in great demand. But you'll have lots of strangers in your house.

It will be a culture in which everyone has things to sell. You could become an online auctioneer, hawking other people's stuff on the net to the highest bidder. No one will ever get the price they want, but you'll always get your fee.

Sell what people need. People who lost everything on bubble stocks like Yahoo, Geocities, and Excite will need to start over again with a more basic portfolio. Be there for them with the essential goods for the new era:

Sell ammunition online. Breed Rottweilers. Write a book on how to plant corn.

And cheer up -- how long can a dark age last?

America's Best-Loved Technology Writer(TM), Michael Finley has a free gift for visitors to http://mfinley.com.